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When to Sell

When we own portions of outstanding businesses with outstanding managements, our favorite holding period is forever.

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Warren Buffett 3.png

Warren Buffett

At the end of 2024, I had held the companies in my portfolio for between ten and twenty-four years, with an average holding time of about fifteen years. Just like Warren, my favourite holding time is forever.

The only reason I ever consider selling shares of one of the companies I hold in my portfolio is if I suspect that the long-term financial future of the company is in jeopardy. If I am convinced that the long-term financial future is deteriorating, such that the dividend payments may be cut or discontinued, I sell the shares as quickly as possible, with little regard for the selling price. If it means that I incur a significant capital loss, so be it. In my opinion, some short-term pain is better than a long, drawn-out period of agony, doubt and soul searching.

Fortunately, there are some warning signs that often appear long before the dividend is cut or suspended, and these should be investigated when you periodically review the financial prospects of your holdings:

  • Earnings, cash flow, or revenues have been steadily decreasing for several consecutive years. 

  • The payout ratio (dividend / earnings) and the cash flow ratio (dividend / cash flow) have been increasing for several consecutive years.

  • There is reason to suspect dishonesty or financial fraud within the company.

  • Company revenues, cash flows, and earnings are unexpectedly restated and reduced.

 

 

1. Attributed to Warren Buffett. Source unknown.

Rev: January, 2026

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